Regional Impacts
Click on the yellow circles in the image below to view the regional impacts due to climate change.
Although the field of regional climate modeling is still maturing, it can take governments years to approve, fund, and implement adaption and mitigation measures. With no solid worldwide plans to reduce human emissions of greenhouse gases in the near future, many U.S. regions and states have begun to use the best information currently available from climate science as inputs for assessments of likely impacts and strategies for dealing with them.
For example, the Second California Assessment (issued in 2011) used downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios from six global climate models run with two different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The models provided projections of warming, precipitation, and sea-level rise.
The model results were then given to experts from other fields who performed their own modeling and analyses to assess climate change impacts on various California sectors, such as water resources, agriculture, wildfires, public health, and energy. These experts also provided some guidance about possible strategies to reduce adverse impacts.
Of course, climate change impacts will vary from one location to another. Below are some of the more likely effects that U.S. regions can expect in the next century. All areas of the U.S. are expected to have higher summer temperatures, which can cause an Increase in heat-related illness and death, especially in urban areas. On the other hand, winter cold stresses will likely be reduced.
Northeast:
- Coastal erosion, loss of wetlands, and increased damage to roads and utilities from storm surges increased by sea-level rise
- Reduced winter recreation; increased summer recreation
- Increased ice storms
- Northward shifts in the ranges of plants and animals
- Air quality degradation
- More frequent severe flooding
- Lobster and cod fisheries reduced
Southeast and Gulf Coast:
- Increased coastal erosion, reductions in barrier islands and wetlands
- Increased coastal flooding from sea-level rise, storm surge, and heavy rain events
- Increased forest fires and insect outbreaks
- Decreased water availability
- Worsening storm surge impacts
- Major disruptions to ecosystems
Midwest and Great Lakes:
- Lower lake and rivers levels, affecting recreation, shipping, hydropower
- Reduced fish stocks due to warmer waters
- Worsening water quality as habitats are lost and undesirable organisms, such as algae, multiply
- Increased agricultural productivity
- Crop, livestock, and forest management practices must adapt to changes
Great Plains:
- Better farm yields in some areas
- Agricultural productivity shifts northward as drought potential increases
- Intensified spring floods
- Declining water resources
West:
- Possibly intensified winter precipitation
- Earlier snowmelt and reduced snowpack, reducing levels in some reservoirs
- Increasing competition for scarce water supplies
- Increased flooding
- Reduced winter activities
- Decreased yields of crops that are already near climate thresholds such as California wine grapes
- Less groundwater recharge
- Increased wildfire potential
Northwest:
- Forests stressed by droughts and high temperatures
- Increased coastal erosion and loss due to sea-level rise
Alaska:
- More pest outbreaks affecting forests; more wildfires
- General increase in plants and animals
- Less sea ice and warming adversely affects habitat for polar bears, marine mammals, and other wildlife, as well as commercial fishing
- Damage to infrastructure from melting permafrost
- Increased opportunities for summer activities
Hawaii:
- Likely sea level rise of 17-25 inches (43-64 centimeters) by 2100
- Possible large precipitation increases, depending on changes in El Niño
- Increased flooding from high surf and floods
- More frequent and intense droughts, with increases in forest fires
- Reduction in fresh water sources
- Potential adverse impacts to plants and animals in the cloud forests